This article reviews the Federal Reserve’s latest commentary and analyzes September leasing and sales activity across major areas in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).
(Note: All housing market charts are sourced from Unlock MLS. Due to slight differences in reporting periods and geographic coverage, minor discrepancies in numbers may exist. Please focus on overall trends and market structure when interpreting these signals.)
Market & Policy Update
The September U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was postponed due to the federal government shutdown. The Department of Labor said the Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled part of its staff and now plans to publish the CPI report on October 24.
With fresh inflation data on hold, investors are focusing on the Federal Reserve’s latest signals.
In recent comments, Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed’s tightening cycle may soon be complete, adding that its balance-sheet reduction could wrap up within months, potentially “opening the door to future rate cuts.”
（Image from CNBC）
Although Powell gave no firm timetable, he noted that the labor market is cooling and that the risks between inflation and employment are “becoming more balanced.” His tone suggests a gradual shift toward a more accommodative policy stance.
This pivot has boosted expectations that the next easing cycle could start sooner than previously thought, improving sentiment around mortgage rates and the housing market as the year winds down.
Austin Metro Housing Landscape
In August, the Austin metro’s median home price edged up slightly, but sales volumes fell and inventory climbed. There were also positive signals: mortgage rates stabilized in the low 6% range, and pending sales picked up modestly, showing that buyers haven’t disappeared, but many are waiting for more favorable conditions.
With inventory now at 5.9 months, Austin’s housing market has tipped firmly into buyer’s market, giving buyers greater leverage at the negotiating table. Even with the seasonal patterns will influence the fall market, but underlying trends hint a gradual improving in the coming months.
In September, the Austin metro’s housing market followed its typical fall slowdown but showed renewed strength beneath the surface. With mortgage rates gradually trending lower, home prices edged down slightly while sales activity picked up. Overall, the balance between buyers and sellers has become more even, and the market has continued to shift firmly in favor of buyers.
🏡 Pricing Trend and Contracts
The metro’s median home price slipped to $420,000, down 1.8%, while closed sales rose 6.7% year over year. Total sales dollar volume climbed 5.6%, signaling that overall liquidity remains healthy.
New under contracts ticked up slightly, indicating that buyers are still active and taking advantage of better pricing and improving mortgage conditions.
🏡 Listings and Inventory
With inventory rising to 5.7 months, Austin’s market remains firmly in buyer’s market, giving purchasers more room to negotiate, while sellers must stay strategic on pricing and presentation as competition intensifies.
🌐 Rental Market
The Austin metro’s rental market remained generally stable in September. Median rent held at $2,200, unchanged year over year. Leased volume declined 6.9% year over year, while new rental listings increased 9.3%, pushing inventory up to 3.0 months, a sign of ample supply and rising competition among landlords.
By region, central Austin rents remain elevated but leasing activity has slowed, with citywide rents up 6.2% and transactions down 12.5%.
In contrast, demand in peripheral areas continues to grow, as tenants seek more affordable options outside the core.
Caldwell County’s median rent rose over 12%, while Bastrop County saw lease transactions surge by more than 20%.
🌐 Macro Backdrop
As of mid-October, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.27 %, near its yearly low. Rates have fallen nearly one percentage point since January, supporting buyer confidence and prompting more activity during the fall season.
As inflation continues to moderate and the labor market shows signs of cooling, the Fed is likely to take a more flexible stance in the months ahead. For homebuyers, this shift could translate into a more supportive financing landscape in the coming months.
💡 Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
Buyers: Rates are trending lower and inventory is abundant, an opportune moment to reassess purchase timing and lock in financing while conditions remain favorable.
Sellers: Competition is intensifying. Well-priced, well-presented homes continue to attract serious buyers, but strategy and staging are critical to a successful sale.
📩 Ready to Explore Your Options?
Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or invest, our Real International team is here to deliver tailored strategies to help you succeed in today’s market.
👉 Contact us today at info@realinternational.com to uncover opportunities in the Austin.